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Photo of Gary A. Glick

Gary A. Glick
310.284.2256

Photo of Scott L. Grossfeld

Scott L. Grossfeld
310.284.2247

Photo of Daniel J. Villalpando

Daniel J. Villalpando
310.284.2278

Photo of Jeremy M. Gruber

Jeremy M. Gruber
310.284.2129

Real Estate

Retail

As we have done for the past eight years, the Retail Group of Cox, Castle & Nicholson LLP has, once again, taken on the daunting task of forecasting what to expect in the forthcoming year in four critical segments that affect the retail industry. In doing so, we analyzed the social, political and economic events of 2016, reviewed various economic data and projections and have come to certain opinions relating to the retail industry and where it is heading in 2017. Below is the product of our thinking, in the form of four articles of interest addressing such topics as capital markets, retailing, retail development and the impacts of residential development on retail.


WILL THE RETAIL CAPITAL MARKETS IN 2017 BE “TRUMPED?”

By: Gary Glick 

Since the Great Recession of 2008/2009, the U.S. economy has slowly but steadily improved.  This continued to be the case in 2016.  For most of the year, the yield on the 10-year treasury remained at historic lows, the economy continued to add jobs, unemployment dropped below 5 percent, real gross domestic product growth settled in at about 2 percent, energy prices remained exceptionally low, and the stock market reached historic highs.  Despite all of these positive factors, commercial real estate continues to face some hurdles.  


RETAIL POISED TO PERFORM IN 2017

By: Scott Grossfeld

Last year – 2016 – got off to a rocky start with declines in the U.S. stock markets and problems with the Chinese economy raising concerns about the strength of our own economy and, in particular, the retail sector.  However, as we now know, the stock markets were not only able to rebound, but also thrive, and the world economies were able to work through glitches to make 2016 a positive year for the American economy, including the American retail sector.


RETAIL DEVELOPMENT - CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM RULES THE DAY

By: Dan Villalpando

The retail industry welcomed 2016 with cautious optimism, not unlike the sentiment entering the previous year.  Statistically, calendar year 2016 turned out to be a decent year for retail developers (and retailers), with estimates that retail sales in 2016 rose approximately 3.3% over sales in 2015.  While such growth is not as robust as many had hoped, it does represent movement in the right direction, and begs the question: Can we expect to see even more improvement in 2017?  Based on positive news regarding the gross domestic product, continued growth in the job sector and the influx of foreign investment dollars, it appears that there may be reason to expect even better things in retail development this coming year.


"FROM RED-HOT RECOVERY TO NORMAL" - WILL 2017 BE THE YEAR?

By: Jeremy Gruber

Continuing to build on post-Great Recession gains, by some measures 2016 was the best year for the U.S. housing market in a decade, driven in large part by historically low interest rates and strong demand.  The strength of the 2016 market may have come as a surprise to those who expected growth to level off in 2016, with Zillow’s chief economist Svenja Gudell remarking, “If the expectation was that the market would transition smoothly from deep red hot recovery to normal – that certainly didn’t happen.” 

If you have any questions regarding this publication, please contact:


Gary Glick - 310.284.2256 or gglick@coxcastle.com 
Scott Grossfeld - 310.284.2247 or sgrossfeld@coxcastle.com
Daniel Villalpando - 310.284.2278 or dvillalpando@coxcastle.com
Jeremy Gruber - 310.284.2129 or jgruber@coxcastle.com

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